The federal government just formalised a new national emissions reduction goal: 62–70% below 2005 levels by 2035. This ratchets up the ambition beyond the 43% by 2030 target and signals stronger action in energy, electrification, efficiency and grid  transformation. 

At the same time, Victoria already has its own legally entrenched 2035 goal: cutting emissions 95% below 2005 levels by 2035.  That means Victoria is pushing harder than the federal “floor” — so Victorian households will likely see stronger state-level policies and infrastructure change. 

For rooftop solar and battery owners (or would-be owners) in Victoria, here’s what those combined targets make likely — and what to do now to get ahead.

What It Means for Solar + Battery Owners in Victoria

As Victoria aims for 95% renewable electricity by 2035 under its state roadmap, more large-scale solar, wind, and grid-scale storage is needed, which will shift grid supply dynamics. Households with flexible resources (solar + battery + load management) will be better placed to benefit.

Current Subsidies & Support: Federal + State Programs

• The Cheaper Home Batteries Program (federal) offers about 30 % discount on upfront battery costs (for systems between 5kWh and 50kWh for homes) to accelerate uptake. This rebate drops each year until 2030 meaning it won’t get any better in future.

• Unfortunately, the Solar Victoria Solar Homes battery program has ended. However, the Solar homes solar panel rebate for home owners and renters is still going worth $1400 with the option of another $1400 interest free loan for eligible householders

• There is still the federal STC solar panel incentive offering a discount based on the size of your solar system. This drops each year until 2030 like the battery rebate

• Solar Victoria also has a hot water rebate. Hot water makes a large part of the energy cost of many Victorian homes so reducing energy usage can save you a lot

• The Victorian government also has incentives on whole range of energy efficiency products that can help you reduce you energy use. Find out more at Victorian Energy Upgrades

• All the above incentives stack up greatly reducing your out-of-pocket cost when you install or upgrade. 

If you are planning to install or upgrade, timing matters: doing so while these incentives are active improves your return on investment.

Shift from Export to a Self-Consumption Strategy

As more households and large generators come online, networks may impose stronger export limits or lower feed-in rates to manage grid balance. That means exporting excess solar to the grid might yield less value going forward. Batteries (and demand flexibility) become more important because they allow you to capture your midday solar and use it later — improving your self-consumption ratio.

Tariff Structures & Dynamic Pricing

With high DER (distributed energy resource) penetration, flat retail tariffs become less efficient. Victorian retailers are likely to expand time-of-use, demand-based pricing or even dynamic pricing. A household with a battery and smart load management can shift usage to low-cost periods and avoid expensive peak rates, making the battery more financially attractive.

Grid & Network Impacts

• In some areas, a cluster of homes with batteries may help reduce local peaks or delay the need for network upgrades (transformer or feeder upgrades).
• On the other hand, network operators will need to invest in more sophisticated control systems, better bidirectional handling, inverter standards, and grid-edge coordination. Some of those costs may flow back into network charges or integration levies.
• Victoria is planning large renewable energy zones (REZs) and storage capacity under its roadmap to absorb new capacity and stabilise the grid. 

Risk & Uncertainty to Watch

• Policy risk: Incentives, export rules, and tariffs might shift over time with political or regulatory changes.
• Uptake saturation: In areas with a lot of batteries, the benefit of flexibility may decline if everyone tries to shift in the same direction.
• Battery degradation & replacement cost: Long-term performance, warranty, and replacement economics are still key to a good investment.
• Network charges and integration fees may rise to cover grid upgrades. 

What You Can Do Now if You’re in Victoria

• Check your eligibility for the state Solar homes program. You are eligible for the federal Cheaper Home Batteries discount.

• Design for expansion — even if you don’t install a battery today, get an inverter and wiring that allows you to add one later more cheaply.

• Monitor tariff offerings — choose a retailer plan with favourable time-of-use or demand signals, or switch when battery is ready.

• Consider smart load shifting — investing in appliances or automation (e.g. shifting loads to off-peak) will help extract value from battery + solar.

• Time your investment — install or upgrade when subsidies and favourable rules are in place to boost your returns. NOW is the time!

• Stay informed — regulatory frameworks (export limits, grid integration charges, tariff reforms) will evolve fast. Being ahead of change is an advantage.

Contact 3 Phase Solar today for a consultation and let us help you find the perfect solar and battery solution for your home